Erick Lihme
Observer
I believe this is the description offered by many analysts, and is the characterization accepted by governments and industry leaders.
The estimates are likely based on the current model of consumption.
We can only hope that we will adopt the technology which can greatly reduce demand in a timely manner before the economy suffers, i.e., smaller cars, LED for lighting, ground source heat pumps and so on. Only a 1/5th of US demand is for transportation. The tech is available and growing; look at Europe. When the price goes up, we will make the painful changes. One of the best investments to add to one's portfolio is energy conservation.
Cheap oil is more a threat to civilization than Global Warming. The effect of increasing solar activity is being ignored, and climate models suggest a cooling trend in 2010. Battling CO2 emissions adds additional cost offsetting gains in efficiency which in turn reduce CO2. Future reading on oil shale, such as found in the Green River Formation, finds the processing is very dirty, making it an undesirable source, a source of last resort.
It is a complicated issue, yet it is simple. It will happen, and higher prices will reduce demand, but will it reduce it enough to stem an economic collapse? Hungry people become animals.
The estimates are likely based on the current model of consumption.
We can only hope that we will adopt the technology which can greatly reduce demand in a timely manner before the economy suffers, i.e., smaller cars, LED for lighting, ground source heat pumps and so on. Only a 1/5th of US demand is for transportation. The tech is available and growing; look at Europe. When the price goes up, we will make the painful changes. One of the best investments to add to one's portfolio is energy conservation.
Cheap oil is more a threat to civilization than Global Warming. The effect of increasing solar activity is being ignored, and climate models suggest a cooling trend in 2010. Battling CO2 emissions adds additional cost offsetting gains in efficiency which in turn reduce CO2. Future reading on oil shale, such as found in the Green River Formation, finds the processing is very dirty, making it an undesirable source, a source of last resort.
It is a complicated issue, yet it is simple. It will happen, and higher prices will reduce demand, but will it reduce it enough to stem an economic collapse? Hungry people become animals.